Anchor the timeline
Record when a price changed, what source appeared, and whether it relates to the exact contract. Headlines may describe an adjacent event rather than the market's stated outcome.
Check information quality
Prefer primary documents, official data, and reliable reporting. A fast social post can move a market before its claims are verified.
Keep resolution separate
A market can reprice after news but still resolve later under its written source and deadline. Do not assume a current narrative settles a contract.
Read prediction-market liquidity and prediction-market risks before interpreting a market move.