Market intelligence

How to Evaluate Prediction Market Trader Performance

A practical methodology for reading public prediction-market trader performance without mistaking past results for future outcomes.

Use a complete sample

One visible winning trade says little. Review time range, number of resolved positions, concentration, and whether gains depend on a single exceptional outcome.

Separate realized and open positions

Open positions can change value before resolution. Compare realized results with current exposure instead of treating a single portfolio number as final profit.

Never copy without review

Public activity can be delayed, incomplete, or tied to a different risk tolerance. Read the contract, pricing, depth, and resolution rules before making any independent decision.

Read prediction-market liquidity and prediction-market risks before interpreting a market move.

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