A price move is a signal to investigate, not proof that an outcome will happen.

Start with the question and timeline

Read the exact outcome, deadline, resolution source, and conditions. A price change only has meaning in context of what the contract actually resolves on.

Compare price, spread, and depth

Price shows the latest tradable level. Spread and order-book depth show how much liquidity is available around it. A sharp move on little size can tell a different story from steady movement with broad participation.

Look for new information

Check source quality, publication time, and whether a development changes the contract's written outcome. Avoid treating social posts or one chart as verified evidence.

Use multiple signals

Compare market movement with reliable reporting, official data, and other relevant indicators. Markets can be wrong, thin, or slow to incorporate information.

Continue with prediction-market liquidity and prediction-market risks.