Yes contract
Wins only if written rules resolve Yes.
No contract
Wins only if written rules resolve No.
Price formation, access, and settlement rules vary by product and venue.
Similar words, different products
People may use the word "bet" for any view on a future event. Product mechanics can differ. In a prediction market, participants may trade outcome contracts with one another. Other betting products can use operator-set odds, different payout rules, or a different counterparty structure.
Do not infer legal treatment, availability, or risk from a familiar label. Read the specific venue's terms and the contract's written rules.
Price and payout
An outcome contract often trades between $0 and $1. A $0.63 Yes contract is commonly read as a 63% market-implied chance and may pay a fixed amount if its stated outcome resolves Yes. Its price can move before resolution.
Use the prediction-market payout calculator to inspect the basic math. It does not predict fills, account for every venue fee, or remove risk.
Trading before resolution
Some prediction-market contracts can be sold before resolution if there is a willing buyer. That depends on live spread and depth. A displayed price is not a guarantee that a position can be closed at that price or size.
Read how to read an order book for the mechanics.
Rules, access, and risk
Eligibility, age requirements, jurisdiction, taxes, fees, and market categories vary by venue and can change. Never attempt to bypass venue restrictions. Only risk an amount you can afford to lose, and confirm the exact resolution terms before acting.
Open HBFmarket terminalSources and further reading
Keep learning
What Are Prediction Markets?
A plain-English introduction to prediction markets: what a contract represents, how prices form, and what happens when a market resolves.
How Prediction Market Odds Work
Learn how to read prediction-market odds, why a contract price is often treated as an implied probability, and why it is never a guarantee.
Prediction Market Liquidity Explained
Understand Polymarket order-book liquidity, bid-ask spreads, depth, and why a displayed prediction-market price may not be your fill price.
Prediction Market Risks to Understand
Understand prediction-market risks before you trade: losing positions, thin liquidity, resolution rules, fees, account safety, and changing eligibility requirements.
What Is a Non-Custodial Trading Terminal?
Learn what a non-custodial trading terminal does, what it does not do, and which responsibilities remain with you and the market venue.
How to Read a Polymarket Order Book
Learn how to read a Polymarket order book: bids, asks, spread, depth, midpoint, and why available liquidity matters before you submit an order.
Polymarket Copy Trading: Risks and Manual Review
Understand Polymarket copy trading: how public wallet activity can inform research, why it is not a recommendation, and why HBFmarket requires manual confirmation.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting
Compare prediction markets and sports betting: contract prices, order books, liquidity, settlement rules, and why each has distinct risks and legal treatment.
Prediction Markets vs Polls
Compare prediction markets and opinion polls: what each measures, how market prices form, and why neither is a guaranteed forecast.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: What to Compare
A dated, practical comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi: event contracts, price formation, order books, fees, access, and which questions to verify before trading.
How to Use Prediction Markets
Learn how to use prediction markets responsibly: read the question, understand odds and liquidity, and check venue eligibility before submitting an order.
How to Evaluate a Polymarket Terminal
A practical checklist for evaluating a Polymarket terminal: market discovery, order-book clarity, wallet safety, venue rules, and transparent trade context.