A prediction market is a market about a future event. Instead of buying a company share, people trade contracts tied to a clear question: “Will this happen by this date?”

The goal is not to guess with certainty. A market price shows what traders are willing to pay right now, using the information and liquidity available right now.

Simple definition

Think of a contract as a claim on one possible outcome. A simple market might have Yes and No contracts. If the event resolves Yes, the Yes contract is the winning outcome. If it resolves No, the No contract is the winning outcome.

Every market should state its question, end date, resolution source, and edge cases. Read those rules before treating a headline or market title as the full question.

How a market works

1. A venue lists a question and the rules for resolving it.
2. Traders place buy and sell orders for outcomes.
3. Matching orders create trades and update the visible price.
4. When the event can be decided, the venue follows its resolution process.
5. The winning outcome settles under that venue's rules.

HBFmarket helps you discover markets, inspect prices and liquidity, and use supported third-party infrastructure. It does not operate a market or decide outcomes.

What a price means

If a Yes contract trades near $0.60, people often describe that as a market-implied chance of about 60%. That is a useful shorthand, not a promise and not a scientific forecast.

Prices can move because new information arrives, traders disagree, or there is little liquidity. Learn how odds work and why liquidity matters before reading too much into one number.

Resolution

Resolution is the step that determines the winning outcome. Good market rules name the source that decides the result and explain what happens if the event is delayed, cancelled, or ambiguous.

Do not assume a contract resolves when a news story first appears. Check the written rules and the venue's official resolution updates. A market can remain unsettled while the defined source is still pending.

Before you participate

• Read the complete market question and resolution rules.
• Check the order book, not only the last traded price.
• Understand fees, order types, and whether your order can remain open.
• Use only services available to you under their current rules and local requirements.
• Treat every position as risky; a winning outcome is never guaranteed before resolution.

Next: read prediction market risks or return to the prediction markets overview.