Often read as about 60% market-implied chance. Not a guarantee.
A market price and poll result describe different signals and uncertainty.
Different signals
Prediction markets and opinion polls both describe uncertainty, but they measure different things. A poll estimates responses from a defined sample at a point in time. A prediction-market price reflects prices participants are willing to trade at under that market's written rules.
Neither one is a promise about an outcome. A market can be thin or react to incomplete information; a poll can be affected by sampling, wording, timing, or methodology.
How a market price forms
In an order-book market, buyers and sellers submit bids and asks for outcome contracts. A Yes contract near $0.60 is commonly read as roughly 60% market-implied probability. That interpretation only describes the current market price; spread and available depth can affect what price an order receives.
Read how prediction-market odds work and prediction-market liquidity before relying on a displayed price.
How a poll works
Poll results depend on who was sampled, how respondents were contacted, when responses were collected, and how results were weighted. Good polling coverage reports methodology and uncertainty rather than treating a single percentage as final.
Polls can be useful context for an election market, but they do not replace its written question, resolution rules, or live order-book conditions.
Read both carefully
When comparing a poll with a prediction market, check whether they refer to the same population, geography, time horizon, and outcome definition. Prefer multiple credible sources. Treat differences as a question to investigate, not proof that one signal must be wrong.
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