簡単な定義
予測市場は将来の出来事についての市場です。参加者は「この出来事はこの日までに起きるか」のような明確な質問に結び付いた契約を取引します。
価格は、その時点で取引者が支払ってもよいと考える金額を示します。将来の結果を保証するものではありません。
市場の仕組み
プラットフォームは質問、期限、決済ルールを示します。その後、取引者は各結果について買い注文や売り注文を出します。
条件の合う注文が一致すると取引が成立します。新しい情報や流動性の変化により、価格は動くことがあります。
価格の読み方
Yes 契約が 0.60 ドル付近なら、市場が示す確率はおよそ 60% と読まれることがあります。これは便利な目安であり、確実な予想ではありません。
判断する前に質問全文を読み、注文板とその価格で取引できる数量を確認してください。
決済と注意点
どの結果が勝ちとなるかは、書面で示された決済ルールで決まります。ニュースが出ても、すぐに決済されるとは限りません。
ルール、手数料、利用制限を確認してください。利用資格のあるサービスだけを使い、失っても困らない金額を超えて取引しないでください。
Sources and further reading
Keep learning
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Prediction Market Risks to Understand
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Prediction Markets vs Betting
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Polymarket vs Kalshi: What to Compare
A dated, practical comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi: event contracts, price formation, order books, fees, access, and which questions to verify before trading.
How to Use Prediction Markets
Learn how to use prediction markets responsibly: read the question, understand odds and liquidity, and check venue eligibility before submitting an order.
How to Evaluate a Polymarket Terminal
A practical checklist for evaluating a Polymarket terminal: market discovery, order-book clarity, wallet safety, venue rules, and transparent trade context.