简单定义
预测市场围绕未来事件展开。参与者交易与明确问题相关的合约，例如“这件事会在某个日期前发生吗？”。
价格反映的是交易者此刻愿意支付的金额，并不保证未来结果。
市场如何运作
平台会公布问题、日期和结算规则。随后，交易者可以针对不同结果提交买入或卖出订单。
当兼容的订单成交时，就会产生交易。新信息出现或流动性变化时，价格可能迅速变化。
如何理解价格
价格接近 0.60 美元的“是”合约，通常被理解为市场隐含概率约为 60%。这是一个有用的简写，而不是确定的预测。
在下结论之前，请阅读完整问题，并查看订单簿和该价格可成交的数量。
结算与谨慎
书面结算规则决定哪个结果获胜。一条新闻并不一定会立即使市场结算。
请阅读规则、费用和适用限制。只能使用你有资格访问的服务，也不要投入无法承受损失的资金。
Sources and further reading
Keep learning
How Prediction Market Odds Work
Learn how to read prediction-market odds, why a contract price is often treated as an implied probability, and why it is never a guarantee.
Prediction Market Liquidity Explained
Understand Polymarket order-book liquidity, bid-ask spreads, depth, and why a displayed prediction-market price may not be your fill price.
Prediction Market Risks to Understand
Understand prediction-market risks before you trade: losing positions, thin liquidity, resolution rules, fees, account safety, and changing eligibility requirements.
What Is a Non-Custodial Trading Terminal?
Learn what a non-custodial trading terminal does, what it does not do, and which responsibilities remain with you and the market venue.
How to Read a Polymarket Order Book
Learn how to read a Polymarket order book: bids, asks, spread, depth, midpoint, and why available liquidity matters before you submit an order.
Polymarket Copy Trading: Risks and Manual Review
Understand Polymarket copy trading: how public wallet activity can inform research, why it is not a recommendation, and why HBFmarket requires manual confirmation.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting
Compare prediction markets and sports betting: contract prices, order books, liquidity, settlement rules, and why each has distinct risks and legal treatment.
Prediction Markets vs Betting
Compare prediction markets and betting: price formation, outcome contracts, liquidity, settlement rules, and risks to check before participating.
Prediction Markets vs Polls
Compare prediction markets and opinion polls: what each measures, how market prices form, and why neither is a guaranteed forecast.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: What to Compare
A dated, practical comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi: event contracts, price formation, order books, fees, access, and which questions to verify before trading.
How to Use Prediction Markets
Learn how to use prediction markets responsibly: read the question, understand odds and liquidity, and check venue eligibility before submitting an order.
How to Evaluate a Polymarket Terminal
A practical checklist for evaluating a Polymarket terminal: market discovery, order-book clarity, wallet safety, venue rules, and transparent trade context.