簡單定義
預測市場圍繞未來事件。參與者交易與明確問題相關的合約，例如「這件事會在某個日期前發生嗎？」
價格反映交易者此刻願意支付的金額，並不保證未來結果。
市場如何運作
平台會公布問題、日期與結算規則。交易者可針對不同結果提交買入或賣出訂單。
相容訂單成交時便會產生交易。新資訊或流動性變化都可能使價格改變。
如何理解價格
價格接近 0.60 美元的「是」合約，通常被解讀為市場隱含機率約為 60%。這是有用的簡寫，而非確定預測。
下結論前，請閱讀完整問題，並查看訂單簿及該價格可成交的數量。
結算與謹慎
書面結算規則決定哪個結果獲勝。新聞出現不代表市場會立即結算。
請閱讀規則、費用與適用限制。只使用你有資格使用的服務，也不要投入無法承受損失的金額。
Sources and further reading
Keep learning
How Prediction Market Odds Work
Learn how to read prediction-market odds, why a contract price is often treated as an implied probability, and why it is never a guarantee.
Prediction Market Liquidity Explained
Understand Polymarket order-book liquidity, bid-ask spreads, depth, and why a displayed prediction-market price may not be your fill price.
Prediction Market Risks to Understand
Understand prediction-market risks before you trade: losing positions, thin liquidity, resolution rules, fees, account safety, and changing eligibility requirements.
What Is a Non-Custodial Trading Terminal?
Learn what a non-custodial trading terminal does, what it does not do, and which responsibilities remain with you and the market venue.
How to Read a Polymarket Order Book
Learn how to read a Polymarket order book: bids, asks, spread, depth, midpoint, and why available liquidity matters before you submit an order.
Polymarket Copy Trading: Risks and Manual Review
Understand Polymarket copy trading: how public wallet activity can inform research, why it is not a recommendation, and why HBFmarket requires manual confirmation.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting
Compare prediction markets and sports betting: contract prices, order books, liquidity, settlement rules, and why each has distinct risks and legal treatment.
Prediction Markets vs Betting
Compare prediction markets and betting: price formation, outcome contracts, liquidity, settlement rules, and risks to check before participating.
Prediction Markets vs Polls
Compare prediction markets and opinion polls: what each measures, how market prices form, and why neither is a guaranteed forecast.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: What to Compare
A dated, practical comparison of Polymarket and Kalshi: event contracts, price formation, order books, fees, access, and which questions to verify before trading.
How to Use Prediction Markets
Learn how to use prediction markets responsibly: read the question, understand odds and liquidity, and check venue eligibility before submitting an order.
How to Evaluate a Polymarket Terminal
A practical checklist for evaluating a Polymarket terminal: market discovery, order-book clarity, wallet safety, venue rules, and transparent trade context.